1st Race
6-Ash Wednesday has improved steadily in three starts since moving into the McGee barn and the horse she beat last time out came back to win her next start. 2-Champagne On Ice comes off a win on a big drop in class but the third-place finisher came back to win and I don't think this is that much of a jump up for this filly. 3-Day Dawning comes off a win at a seemingly higher level but I'm skeptical of these California shippers in this kind of race.
2nd Race
Two-year old turf sprinters so almost no form to guide us here. The ownership group for 5-Munchkin has good success with two-year olds and this trainer excels in turf sprints. 2-Nanina has been working on a deep strip at Payson Park in Florida and should be fit off those moves for trainer Brad Cox. And her sire won on this turf course. 8-Ganymede runs out of the Ward barn with fast work here on April 12 but the lack of works beyond three furlongs makes me think this filly could come up short. 10-Diva Calling is worth a look because the Weaver barn has strong numbers in turf sprints. And 11-I Think I Can runs out of the Pletcher barn and is from a sire who has had great success with runners in this country. Perhaps the toteboard gives you clues on how to play this race.
3rd Race
6-Toxic Love gets the nod in a race lacking a standout because of the trainer-jock combo. 8-Beach Queen goes for a trainer who excels with first-timers and a few other stats that apply in this spot so I have a hunch this filly outruns her odds. 7-Ragtime Sizzle comes from the Kenneally barn and Saez seems to be his go-to rider. Tough call in this race. for me.
4th Race
The early speed of 7-Uncashed may be the key to getting this one home first. She's faced some solid competition and out to be facing a more lineup here that is more favorable to his chances. 3-Billy the Greek is the one to beat but he figures to be coming from out of it and may come up short. 1-Higher Standard's last two races are the best in a long time and he drops down in a class in this spot. He's a serious contender, too.
5th Race
2-Buttercream Babe just missed in a grade two on this course in her last start. Now, that was last October but she won first time out and then she won off a layoff last summer so the Maker barn can have her ready to fire in this race. 8-Sweet Rebecca won her first two starts so with Chad Brown training, she could certainly be ready to fire off this long layoff. 3-She's a Tempest has run two good races since new trainer Bill Mott put her on the grass and those allowance races at Gulfstream produce a lot of spring winners here at Keeneland. 1-Deep Satin has been off since September but that last start was a stakes win at Colonial.
6th Race
2-Tiz Silver spotted her rivals a whole bunch of lengths down the backstretch of her race last time at Turfway but she came roaring down the stretch to win with ease. She has more early speed than she showed that night and in a race in which the ones with more experience has question marks, I think this filly is capable of a victory in her first try against winners. 1-Tiarella is making that same kind of move off a runaway win off a long layoff but not sure if she beat much that day. 5-Sam's Treasure ran a couple of races at Saratoga that would stack up well versus these but not sure if she'll be ready to fire her best shot off a long layoff. But if she is, she's the one to beat.
7th Race
I think a first-time starter wins this but which one of these well-bred three-year olds is most ready? I'll take my shot with 4-Dontworryaboutnothn for Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz. I like the pattern of works that are not only fast but also steadily increasing in length over a long period of time. 7-Life's Reward for Cox and 1-Il Cavallino for Maker are both sons of Into Mischief and either one of them could be the one, too. And 3-Cruise the Nile debuts for the Motion barn and his numbers with first-timers are quite good.
8th Race
An upset could be brewing in the grade 3 Bewitch Stakes presented by Keeneland Sales. 5-Just Basking didn't show much last time out when put on turf for the first time but I interviewed trainer Ian Wilkes for the Today at Keeneland show and he's confident this filly likes the turf and it was a slow pace that comprimised her chances last time. She nearly won the grade 1 Alabama at three and if he's right about the turf, then 12-1 would be a big overlay on a filly this good with an affinity for long races. 3-Forever after All ran second in a similar spot last fall but she has been the runnerup 10 times. 4-Immensitude makes the second start off a long layoff for Mott and has talent. 7-Eternal Silence ran big off a layoff in her start last time at Tampa.
9th Race
1-Unmatched Wisdom won his first three starts for Chad Brown and then moved into grade 1 company in consecutive starts. If he's as good as they thought he was last summer, he'll be very tough to beat in this spot at a short price. 9-Dubyunell is the horse I see that could beat the top choice. He won here with a lifetime best Beyer and now runs out of the Mott barn. 2-Will Take It does have races this year so that is a big plus when the top two choices are coming off layoffs.
10th Race
It's the "get out" race for the spring meet but I don't see a big price winning in this spot. 11-Sumood makes his first start on the turf but he's bred to relish the combination of distance and surface that he gets here. 7-Tickled Quist shows two runnerup finishes in two starts for Cox and the winner of his last race came back to win here last Saturday. 3-Sardis has improving form and an 85 Beyer figure from two starts back. 8-Operation Sunrise debuts for Godolphin and trainer Bill Mott and that's a dangerous combo in any race. If there's a price that hits, I'd say it'll be 5-Stormy Passage who is bred to love long turf races and his only start was on dirt.
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