Expert Picks

Jeremy Plonk

Jeremy Plonk is the owner of Horse Player NOW, the racing industry's leading fan education and player development website and creator of the Night School program. He has been a Keeneland handicapping consultant since 2008 and was lead statistician/researcher for more than 50 Triple Crown telecasts on NBC, ABC and ESPN for 18 years.

Jeremy Plonk’s Keeneland Keys for Friday, April 25, 2025

 

Quick Note: Thank you all for having me into your Keeneland experience for the 34th consecutive race meeting in this space. It's a privilege to share my work and passion with those who have a pursuit for study, knowledge and a willingness to avoid shortcuts. This is horse racing, not rocket science; let's continue to have fun with it while stimulating our minds.

                                   

What to Watch for Today: Closing day of the 15-day Spring Meet features the Grade 3 $350,000 Bewitch Stakes for fillies and mares going 1-1/2 miles on the turf. Three trainers have 9 wins overall and each has 3 shots on the card today to secure the meet title: Wesley Ward, Brad Cox and Brendan Walsh. The jockeys’ race saw Flavien Prat triple on Thursday to reach 18 wins, while Luis Saez drew even in the finale at 18. Jose Ortiz had a Thursday win for 17, while Irad Ortiz Jr. was shut out (4 second-place finishes) and remains with 15.

 

Handicapping Head-start: Be sure to join me at 8:30 pm ET on the night before each racing day’s card for the Keeneland Look-Ahead video podcast. It streams live on the Keeneland YouTube page as well on Twitter @Keenelandracing, @BetKeeneland and @Horseplayernow.

 

Weather: Rain skirted the racing day Thursday but returns to the forecast for the season’s final program. Keep an eye on the skies and updated conditions.

 

My Selections: You can get my top 3 picks in each race on the track simulcast feed before each race as well on the Keeneland.com handicappers’ consensus page (https://www.keeneland.com/racing/wagering/handicappers-consensus).

                                              

Keeneland Handicapping 101: Most information is gleaned from the free Keeneland Handicapping database (http://apps.keeneland.com/awstats/Default.asp) that you can manipulate and search for yourself as well!

1st Race

Non-winners of 2 lifetime (N2L) claimers race 1-1/16 miles on dirt to get the early pick 5 underway. Favorites are a respectable 6-19 in claiming races this meeting with 17 winners in single-digit odds, including Thursday top pick and second public wagering choice River Ridge. Turfway has produced 7 winners (5 for Fair Grounds, 3 for Oaklawn). In the 9 N2L condition claimers, the average winner has been 5-1 odds with 5 winners via Fair Grounds leading the way. Ash Wednesday is the lone FG rep and goes for the same Paul McGee barn that won Thursday’s N2L offering. Day Dawning has the best maiden win on paper, a key handicapping angle for me, in her Santa Anita $50,000 claiming score. She’s by Classic Empire, Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity winner over this track in 2016.

2nd Race

Two-year-old turf sprinters clash in this maiden special weight event to open the early pick 4. George Weaver’s charge ran down a Wesley Ward favorite in a similar spot Thursday and they return with Diva Calling and Ganymede, respectively. We’ve only had 8 of these in Spring Meets since introduced in 2021 with 5 winning favorites and an average winner just 3-1 odds. All 8 winners were first-time starters, 6 with local Keeneland workouts prior. As you might suspect, Wesley Ward has won 5 of them. Irad Ortiz Jr. has ridden 4 of the last 5 such winners and was second in Thursday’s heat. He’ll pair with I Think I Can for Todd Pletcher. Power posts 3-4-5 are advantageous in full-field turf sprints if you can make a case for Sweet Espresso, Dragon Navy or Munchkin, barring scratches. The latter appeals most of that trio.

3rd Race

Maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs on dirt in this one. Favorites are 4-13 in MCL races at the current meet with an average winner 7-2 odds (no winners over 8-1). Fair Grounds preppers have a 6-4-2 edge in wins over Turfway and Gulfstream, but the TP set dominates the entries amongst the experienced horses. Toxic Love may be ost interesting of those off a troubled debut fourth for Brendan Walsh and Irad Ortiz, both battling for potential meet titles today. First-time starters account for only 7 of 45 Spring Meet MCL races at this 6F sprint distance, so lean to experience on top even in a race where rookies Scythia and Ragtime Sizzle are very appealing to me.

4th Race

Mid-level claimers clash for the $20,000 level in this 6-furlong dirt sprint. Favorites are a respectable 6-19 in claiming races this meeting with 17 winners in single-digit odds, including. Turfway has produced 7 winners (5 for Fair Grounds, 3 for Oaklawn). We’ve had 11 previous Spring Meet claiming sprints in the $16K-$25K range at this same distance, and the average winner is merely a neck off the lead after the first half-mile. Nine of 11 winners were essentially on the lead at that point. All 11 winners exited sprint preps, something Billy the Greek will try to buck.This race is loaded with speed types, including Molto Vivace and Uncashed perhaps fleetest. Uncashed makes a big class drop for high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, who has had some luck with jockey Walter Rodriguez in limited pairings over the years.

5th Race

The pick 6 kicks off with this second-level (N2X) allowance turf mile that is loaded with stakes credentials. This race also begins the Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve got Virginia Oaks and Woodbine Oaks winners, as well as fillies placed in Keeneland’s Valley View and Appalachian. So far, we’ve had 14 turf route ALW races at the 2025 Spring Meet, 4 winning favorites while 3 winners have been 14-1 or more. You can fish. Gulfstream preppers have 5 of the 14 wins (Turfway next-best at 2). The GP crew here includes She’s a Tempest, Mo Fox Givin (2024 local Appalachian Stakes runner-up), Dozen Diamonds and Pharoah’s Wine (runner-up in the 2023 Jessamine and 2024 Valley View over this course). Off the full winter layoff, always a danger in Kee Spring Meet turf miles, comes 2024 Virginia Oaks winner Deep Satin for a Cherie DeVaux barn that’s had a rough meet and could use a positive bounce, as well as 2024 Woodbine Oaks winner Kin’s Concerto. Thursday’s Race 7 turf route ALW was won by Herchee in his first start of the season.

6th Race

Entry-level (N1X) allowance sprinters battle the about 7-furlong distance as the late pick 5 starts here. Fair Grounds preppers have won 7 dirt allowance races this meet from 19 offered (Gulfstream next-best with 5). Seven of the 9 dirt ALW sprints this meet have been won by horses 2-1 or less. We’ve had 19 of these N1X ALW sprints at 7F in Spring Meets on dirt overall, and only 4 have been won by horses turning back from a 2-turn prep like Zadorsky and Central Avenue bid. I like the latter a lot on paper and may still try to buck the trend if the price is right (6-1 morning line feels like reasonable value). Sam’s Treasure and Roman Grace both have run credible races over this track and the former will be one of Wesley Ward’s final arrows to pull in his chase for the leading trainer title.

7th Race

The late pick 4 launches with an interesting group of 3-year-old rookies in this 6-furlong maiden special weight sprint. We’ve had 12 races for the sophomore MSWs this current meet on dirt, controlled by 6 winning favorites and 11 winners at 9-2 or less odds. All 9 such sprints have been won by horses within 2-1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile (average winner just three-quarters of a length back at that point). Think speed. First-time starters have won twice in the 3YO MSW sprints and have a good history at this distance, age and class – and ran a strong second and third Thursday in a similar spot. Rookies here to watch include Lifes Reward for Brad Cox and Don’tworryboutnothin for Wesley Ward in a race that could decide the leading trainer’s race.

8th Race

The final stakes of the Spring Meet is featured with the Grade 3 $350,000 Bewitch Stakes at 1-1/2 miles on grass. It’s the middle leg in Friday’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We have 17 years of the Bewitch in our database, a race won the last 6 years by horses 9-2 or less. In fact, 14 of the 17 have been 5-1 or less. Gulfstream preppers lead with 9 wins, which puts Immensitude, Forever After All and Youknownothing on center stage. Brendan Walsh doesn’t get Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride often at Keeneland, but they’re a remarkable 6-for-8 in tandem and pair with Forever After All. That mare missed by a nose in the Dowager Stakes, the Fall Meet’s sister race to the Bewitch and will be big factor. Immensitude gets Thursday’s hot rider Flavien Prat aboard after finishing a touch ahead of Forever After All at Gulfstream in the The Very One Stakes. Her trainer Bill Mott won this race in 2021-’22-’23 with the great War Like Goddess.

9th Race

Third-level (N3X) allowance runners stretch out to 1-1/8 miles on dirt. Fair Grounds preppers have won 7 dirt allowance races this meet from 19 offered (Gulfstream next-best with 5). Favorites are 3-10 in dirt route ALW races at the current meet with an average winner 4-1 (10-1 tops). Only 1 of 10 has been won by a horse making his or her first start of the calendar year like Unmatched Wisdom (winner of Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes), Couth, Rambo Approved and Dubyuhnell (winner of Aqueduct’s Remsen Stakes) attempt. The Fair Grounds-prepped “now” horse could be Will Take It, who has won 2 of his last 3 since coming to the barn of Dallas Stewart.

10th Race

The curtain closes on the Spring Meet with this 1-1/16 miles turf maiden special weight for 3-year-olds and older. It’s the closeout race in the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 as well. Gulfstream preppers have won 4 of the 8 turf route MSW races at the meet and a commanding 51 of the 117 offered since 2011. GP reps here include only Sardis and also-eligible Its Bourbon Thirty. First-time starters have won just 10 of those 117, something Operation Sunrise will try to buck. Brendan Walsh won a trio such races during the ’24 Spring Meet and has 1 so far this meet as he pursues the leading trainer title. He’ll send out regally bred Sumood via a Turfway debut second. Sumood is by Kitten’s Joy and out of Breeders’ Cup F&M Turf winner Lahudood. Also-eligibles Vivaldi and Sully are high on my radar here if they can draw into the field, so keep an eye on scratches and changes. Luis Saez has won the final race on the card in 5 of the last 6 Keeneland programs, so don’t be surprised if he turns out the lights aboard Sardis.